Thousands of American lives could be at risk each year under a major health care overhaul championed by the 47th President, Donald J. Trump, according to new research from top academic institutions.
A recent projection from Yale University and the University of Pennsylvania reveals a chilling warning: if the Republican-led budget reconciliation bill—dubbed by Trump as the “Big, Beautiful Bill”—becomes law, it could result in over 51,000 additional deaths annually across the United States.
On June 3, 2025, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Ranking Member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, spoke out in response to the disturbing new findings.
The detailed analysis, conducted by researchers at Yale School of Public Health and the University of Pennsylvania’s Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, highlights the projected deadly consequences tied to four critical provisions within the proposed legislation.
Senator Sanders issued a powerful statement underscoring the severity of the findings:
“Let’s be clear. The Republican reconciliation bill, which slashes Medicaid funding to bankroll massive tax breaks for billionaires, isn’t just bad policy—it’s immoral. It’s a death sentence for struggling Americans.”
Referencing the academic research, he stressed,
“That’s not just my opinion. It’s the conclusion drawn by experts at Yale and the University of Pennsylvania.”
Researchers estimate that 11,300 Americans would die each year due to working individuals losing health coverage through Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act.
Another 18,200 deaths are projected among low-income seniors who would lose access to vital subsidies that help cover prescription drug costs.
Meanwhile, the removal of staffing requirements in nursing homes is expected to contribute to an additional 13,000 deaths annually.
The analysis presented to Senators Sanders and Ron Wyden draws on mortality projections linked to the rollback of crucial healthcare protections.
It incorporates Congressional Budget Office estimates showing that 7.7 million Americans would lose coverage through Medicaid or the ACA Marketplace, while 1.38 million low-income Medicare beneficiaries would lose Medicaid support via the Medicare Savings Programs.
Additionally, the study factors in the immediate repeal of the national minimum staffing standards for nursing homes, set by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in 2024.
The letter outlines how three key provisions of the bill affect distinct groups: individuals losing all Medicaid coverage, community-dwelling seniors who keep Medicare but lose Medicaid support, and nursing home residents facing reduced staffing levels. Together, these combined effects are projected to result in more than 42,500 additional deaths each year.
The researchers also factored in the consequences of letting the Enhanced ACA Premium Tax Credits expire. Without an extension of these vital subsidies, the bill is projected to cause an additional 8,811 preventable deaths—driving the total estimated annual death toll to more than 51,000.
Senator Sanders, reaffirming his staunch opposition to the bill, declared,
“In the wealthiest nation on Earth, health care must be a guaranteed human right—not something millions of seniors and working families lose so billionaires can get tax breaks.”
He ended with a resolute vow to use every tool at his disposal to stop this harmful legislation from becoming law.
The findings from Yale and the University of Pennsylvania researchers have captured national attention as the bill gains political momentum. While supporters emphasize the legislation’s economic and structural reforms, experts are raising urgent concerns about its potentially devastating human toll.
In a detailed letter to Senate leaders—including Senators Sanders and Wyden—researchers underscored the grave consequences the bill could impose on countless Americans.
“These aren’t just numbers on a page,” said Dr. Alison Galvani, Director of Yale’s Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, reflecting on the mortality projections. “Each data point represents a human life. These cuts would hit America’s most vulnerable the hardest—older adults, low-income families, and those already struggling to access care.”
To back their projections, the researchers relied on mortality data from peer-reviewed studies, applying it to population loss estimates released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in May 2025. They highlighted that each policy change in the bill impacts different groups, meaning the overall death toll is a cumulative effect.
Meanwhile, the White House has championed the legislation as the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” portraying it as a bold and comprehensive reform designed to deliver on long-standing Republican promises.
On its official website, the administration listed “50 reasons why President Donald J. Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill is the best chance in a generation to pass critical reforms for which Americans voted.”
While these benefits are outlined in detail on the White House’s platform, they stand in stark contrast to warnings from public health institutions and budget analysts.
On May 21, 2025, the Joint Economic Committee referenced a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report released earlier that month, projecting that 13.7 million Americans would lose health insurance by 2034 as a direct result of Medicaid and ACA cuts included in the proposed legislation.
In addition to its public health impact, financial analysts have raised red flags about the bill’s economic fallout. According to a June 4, 2025, updated estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the legislation is projected to add nearly $3 trillion to the federal debt by Fiscal Year 2034.
If the bill’s provisions are made permanent, the debt increase could soar to around $5 trillion—factoring in both direct spending and the growing cost of interest on the new debt.
The analysis and critiques of President Donald Trump’s proposed legislation highlight a growing gap between its stated policy ambitions and the projected consequences on the ground.
As Congress continues to deliberate, the research from Yale and the University of Pennsylvania remains a key influence—shaping the national conversation on the future of health care access and economic equity in the United States.