Underwater Volcano on the Brink: Axial Seamount Could Erupt Within Hours, Scientists Warn
A powerful underwater volcano deep in the Pacific Ocean may be on the verge of erupting—possibly as early as tomorrow—according to an urgent alert from leading scientists.
Known as the Axial Seamount, this volatile giant sits over 4,900 feet beneath the ocean’s surface and roughly 300 miles off Oregon’s coast. Spanning a mile across, it’s considered the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest.
Scientists with the National Science Foundation’s Ocean Observatories Initiative have detected a dramatic surge in earthquake activity beneath the volcano, driven by magma pushing toward the surface.
Marine geophysicist William Wilcock from the University of Washington reports that the seafloor has now ballooned to the same swollen state it reached just before its last eruption in 2015—a clear signal that magma is building up once again.
“This kind of deformation is a telltale sign,” says Wilcock. “The volcano is primed. An eruption could be imminent.”
Rumbling Below: Scientists Say Underwater Volcano Could Erupt at Any Moment
An eruption from the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest may be imminent, according to scientists tracking rising seismic activity beneath the ocean floor. Axial Seamount—a massive submarine volcano located nearly a mile beneath the surface and about 300 miles off the Oregon coast—has been showing increasingly urgent signs of unrest.
Currently, the volcano is generating hundreds of small earthquakes each day. While that’s still fewer than what preceded its last eruption in 2015, the pattern is unmistakable: magma is on the move. “I would say it’s likely to erupt later this year or early 2026,” said University of Washington marine geophysicist William Wilcock. “But it could also be tomorrow—this volcano is completely unpredictable.”
The Axial Seamount last erupted in 2015, triggering nearly 8,000 earthquakes, 400-foot-thick lava flows, and an 8-foot drop in the seafloor. Now, researchers are again observing alarming changes. A sharp spike in quakes occurred on April 13, and since May 6, the daily count has been steadily climbing—suggesting magma is once again pushing upward.
Still, experts stress there’s no danger to people on land. The volcano is too far from shore and too deep to trigger significant surface impacts. “When it erupts, no one on the West Coast will feel a thing,” said Mike Poland of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. “But for scientists, it’s a goldmine of data.”
If Axial erupts, seismic activity could surge to more than 10,000 earthquakes in a single day. But unlike explosive land-based eruptions, it’s expected to behave more like a Hawaiian lava flow—calm and steady. “It’s not dramatic to watch, but it’s incredibly valuable to study,” Poland added.
Located along the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a chain of underwater volcanoes stretching from Oregon to Alaska, Axial Seamount is one of the best-monitored submarine volcanoes in the world. Its inflation and eruption patterns have been closely tracked since the late 1990s, with eruptions documented in 1998, 2011, and 2015.
Scientists from Oregon State University and the University of Washington have been carefully monitoring Axial’s gradual inflation—caused by magma accumulating beneath the seafloor. Geophysicist William Chadwick, who has studied the volcano extensively, confirmed that the surface has now returned to its pre-2015 eruption height. “That’s why we forecast another eruption between July 2024 and the end of 2025,” he explained.
The forecast is backed by a significant uptick in seismic swarms, with some days seeing more than 500 small quakes. These tremors often signal magma creeping upward, cracking through layers of rock as it goes.
In December 2024, Chadwick and his team presented their findings to the American Geophysical Union. Their prediction: the next eruption will likely follow the same pattern as in 2015. A sharp spike in quake activity will mark the start, followed by an hour of intense seismic energy—then the eruption itself. The eruption may continue for a month, but the earthquakes will quickly taper off.
This potential eruption is more than just a scientific curiosity—it’s a critical research opportunity. Using a vast network of undersea sensors, scientists from the University of Washington’s College of the Environment plan to capture real-time data and imagery of the event as it unfolds. Their goal: to better understand the mechanics of submarine volcanism and improve forecasting models for more hazardous underwater volcanoes elsewhere in the world.
One such volcano, Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai, erupted violently in 2022, triggering a tsunami that caused an estimated $90 billion in damage and sent shockwaves across the Pacific, affecting countries from Chile to Japan. While Axial Seamount poses no such risk, the insights gained from studying it could help predict and prepare for similar threats in the future.
“This is an unprecedented opportunity,” said Wilcock. “Every eruption gives us a clearer picture of how these underwater giants behave—and how we can better predict them next time.”